A political science professor has expressed his belief that the United States could be ruled by a right-wing dictatorship in less than 10 years.
Thomas Homer-Dixon, executive director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University in Canada, has suggested that US democracy could “collapse” as early as 2025, despite current President Joe Biden’s efforts to defend the system, and be under a dictatorship by 2030.
That collapse could lead to “extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence,” according to Homer-Dixon, who noted that leading American scholars are “actively addressing the prospect of a fatal weakening of American democracy.”
In an opinion piece written for The Globe and MailHomer-Dixon describes the United States as “a flashing political and social landscape with warning signals” and wonders how Canada should “prepare” as the country becomes “increasingly ungovernable.”
He goes on to explain how “America’s economic, racial and social gaps have contributed to an ideological polarization between the political right and left”, asserts that “the moderate political center is rapidly disappearing” and notes that the population is “armed to the teeth”.
The future predicted by Homer-Dixon includes the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 – a scenario that may prove unthinkable to many, but which could become a reality following the refusal of the state legislatures held by the Republicans to accept a Democratic victory.
The professor writes: “Once in office, [Trump] will only have two objectives: justification and revenge. A US civilian-military expert and senior federal official I consulted noted that a re-elected President Trump could be completely free, domestically and internationally.
Homer-Dixon warns Canada that “a terrible storm is coming from the south” and urges the country to “focus on the pressing problem of what to do in the face of the likely erosion of democracy in the United States.”
We must begin by fully recognizing the magnitude of the danger. If Mr. Trump is re-elected, even in the most optimistic scenarios, the economic and political risks to our country will be innumerable. Driven by an aggressive and reactive nationalism, Mr. Trump “could isolate Canada on the continent”, as one of my interlocutors put it euphemistically.
Under the least optimistic scenarios, the risks to our country in their cumulative effect could easily be existential, far greater than any other in the history of our federation.
With these predictions in mind, Homer-Dixon suggested that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should “immediately convene a standing, nonpartisan parliamentary committee with representatives from all five sitting parties.”
The committee should “receive regular intelligence analysis and briefings from Canadian experts on political and social developments in the United States and their implications for democratic failure,” in addition to being tasked with providing the government advice on how to react to such a failure.